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August 20, 2020 Paydirt chat room transcript

August 20, 2020

August 20, 2020 Paydirt chat room transcript

Here is the transcript from the August 20, 2020 Paydirt fantasy football chat. We talked about draft strategies, Ronald Jones, auction values, tight ends, Josh Allen, sleeper/bust QBs and more.

August 20 at 3:54 pm

KC:

Hello and welcome to the inaugural Paydirt fantasy football chat!

August 20 at 3:58 pm

Michael DaRif:

I’m in an 11 team (not a typo) non-PPR league. We start two RB and two WR with one flex. Six point passing TDs.

I pick first overall. If one of the top two QBs and/or one of the top TEs is available at 2-12, would you take a QB or TE? I know that you rank Kelce Top 10. If both a top QB and a top TE are available, would you take both? So McCaffrey/Jackson-Mahomes/Kelce-Andrews-Kittle?

August 20 at 4:05 pm

KC:

Hey Michael! Congrats on having the first question in the new Paydirt chats! The highest rated QB on my non-PPR charts is Lamar Jackson at No. 21, so I would probably not advise selecting a QB in the first round. I do have Kelce at No. 7 overall, but think that Mark Andrews will fall far enough in many draft rooms that it might be best to wait another couple of rounds before selecting a TE.

August 20 at 4:05 pm

Bobby Head:

Given this strange offseason, how much added value, if any, do you place on players in existing systems vs. rookies, players on new teams, or teams with new coaching staffs?

August 20 at 4:06 pm

Andy Grapes:

12 team PPR, if you miss out on 1 of the blue rated Qb’s, would you be fine rolling with Ryan or Stafford and stocking up on RB/WR’s ?

August 20 at 4:07 pm

KC:

Bobby, I placed a lot of value in the player rankings for continuity. Any player who had any type of potential volatility had their grade lowered because there just isn’t going to be time to overcome situations like that. That may only drop a player a round or so over their grade in a normal season, however.

August 20 at 4:09 pm

Michael DaRif:

Question #2 – Ronald Jones keeps falling to me in both Best Ball and mock drafts. I’m taking him based on your rankings. Can you tell me why you are higher than most on him? I saw a stat that he ranked near the bottom as regards pass blocking efficiency last season. Won’t that put him in Brady’s doghouse?

August 20 at 4:10 pm

KC:

Andy, as noted in the second Draft Kit post, the general suggestion at any player position is to be sure to set the floor and set it high. Getting a yellow-rated player at QB is something of a risk and would generally not be suggested. Having noted this, Stafford does have a green-rated ceiling so he could be a viable starter if that pans out.

August 20 at 4:12 pm

KC Joyner:

Michael, Jones rates higher than most because Vaughn is a rookie and Arians is allergic to leaning on rookies. That grade could change depending on how camp pans out, as Vaughn and Jones were rated about dead even in the initial draft guide rankings.

August 20 at 4:14 pm

Andy Grapes:

With the QB depth available, would you only draft 1 QB, and then stream during his bye week.Thus allowing you to take an extra WR/RB..

August 20 at 4:15 pm

Matt S:

First time doing a keeper league in our superflex auction. I’m keeping A-Rob at 9$. How do you recommend adjusting Auction values and strategy based on who’s being kept?

August 20 at 4:17 pm

KC:

Andy, it really depends on the caliber of RB that could be obtained in return. Stafford does have a path to some superb point totals given his performance last year, Detroit’s inability to get away from the passing game because of their terrible defense, and the high matchup points total. Having said all of this, it’s probably best to set the cutoff point at an additional green-rated RB or WR. If an extra player of that caliber cannot be acquired, it’s probably best to aim for a green-rated QB that doesn’t have the risk factors that come with a QB who ended each of last two seasons with a back injury.

August 20 at 4:17 pm

Andy Grapes:

how many additional slots do you recommend adding this year

for the possibility of positive COVID tests

August 20 at 4:18 pm

KC:

Andy, the general consensus seems to be to have four COVID-19 IR spots. I’d probably start with that number or a lower number, but wouldn’t go any lower than two to start the year.

August 20 at 4:19 pm

Matt S:

What is your opinion on stacking in season long leagues?

August 20 at 4:23 pm

KC Joyner:

Matt, auction values are one of the toughest parts of putting together the draft guide because they can vary so widely depending on the league managers. When it comes to adjusting due to keepers, my general rule is to tally how many players are taken out of circulation at each position and then noting that on the Excel charts and compressing accordingly. For example, if nearly all of the blue-rated RBs are kept, then the RB position starts at the green-rated level, which is usually around $40 in a $200 league. I would then see how many managers have the auction $ to get RBs at that level and adjust bidding accordingly.

August 20 at 4:25 pm

KC Joyner:

Matt, I would generally only stack with player on high-powered offenses with high fireworks points totals . Stacking on low powered offenses just adds too much risk in the event the low-powered offense or schedule knocks multiple players out of the ability to post high point totals.

August 20 at 4:34 pm

Andy Grapes:

Won’t know my draft slot until 1 hour before draft. Current mock strategy has been RB/WR in first 4 rounds, Dak in 5th, RB/WR 6-9, TE in 10th, finish roster with WR/RB. Last 2 rounds DST & K. In a 12 Team PPR does that seem like a sound strategy??

August 20 at 4:35 pm

KC Joyner:

Andy, what TE and D/ST have you been able to select in the mock drafts?

August 20 at 4:36 pm

Michael DaRif:

Question #3 – What do you make of the Washington backfield? All of my Best Ball drafts have been on bestball10s where Antonio Gibson is listed as a WR. He is a RB pretty much everywhere else. I’ve heard that Bryce Love seems to be their RB2 right now, behind Peterson but ahead of Barber.

Is any of them worth drafting in my non-PPR league with seven bench spots? If so, who and when?

August 20 at 4:38 pm

Andy Grapes:

been picking a variety of draft slots to see what happens, but almost always able to get Gesicki or Henry at TE. As for DST depends on draft slot, but usually MInn or KC?

August 20 at 4:39 pm

Kevin:

Over under on Tampa Bay wins please.

August 20 at 4:41 pm

KC Joyner:

Michael, that is odd that he would listed as a WR, as he is very likely to end up with RB and WR usage. Love has moved up since the last rankings update and will probably end up as a RB4/RB5 in the next rankings update. I would tend to avoid Barber because of his abysmal GBYPA last year and because his skill set mimics Peterson’s. Washington’s run blocking was quite bad and might be a bit improved with the new coaching staff, but don’t expect a big upgrade.

August 20 at 4:43 pm

KC Joyner:

It’s a bit of a risk on getting Gesicki or Henry, but getting them at that round is a very good risk/reward scenario. Might suggest going for D/ST just a bit earlier if you can snag one of the blue-rated D/STs in round 12 or 13.

August 20 at 4:46 pm

KC Joyner:

Kevin, I would be surprised if Tampa Bay ended the season with fewer than 10 wins in a full 16-game campaign. There is just too much talent on that squad to expect anything less than double-digit wins. Maybe mark down 11.

August 20 at 4:47 pm

Michael DaRif:

Question #4 – Will you be doing in-season chats? Assume you’ll be doing articles each week on waiver wire issues?

August 20 at 4:49 pm

KC Joyner:

Michael, there will be many in-season chats. There will be a Tuesday chat for waivers for Bronze-level subscribers and Thursday/Sunday start-sit chats for Gold subscribers. I may also do some other chats depending on the schedule ends up panning out.

August 20 at 4:49 pm

Kevin:

So the gold package is the only one that gives you the Sunday AM chats?

August 20 at 4:50 pm

KC Joyner:

Michael, there will be weekly waiver-wire articles in addition to the waiver-wire Excel rankings charts sent out every Tuesday morning. I’m thinking these articles will give a quick overview on the best players that week.

August 20 at 4:52 pm

Andy Grapes:

Is Gronk going to be a TD dependent TE, or do you think he will see a fair amount of catches as well considering the WR’s on the roster…

August 20 at 4:53 pm

KC Joyner:

Kevin, the start-sit chats are Gold-level chats. They will run in the hours up to kickoff on days with games and are designed to offer up to the minute start-sit advice exclusively for Gold-level subscribers.

August 20 at 4:55 pm

Kevin:

I see you just answered the Sunday chat question so please disregard. Brady always loved the slot so won’t Godwin rule the roost this year?

August 20 at 4:56 pm

KC Joyner:

Andy, Gronk’s grades were some of the toughest to put together for this year’s draft guide. Tampa Bay may have as many as 600 targets to distribute, nearly half of those could end up going to Evans and Godwin alone. Add in the other WRs, the RBs passes, passes thrown away or knocked down, spikes, and targets to other tight ends and it’s just tough to get Gronk to a triple-digit target volume. I ended up rating him just short of the 100+ target volume level and that’s part of why he ended up sixth on the TE charts. He won’t be purely TD dependent but he will be closer to that than the other green- and blue-rated TEs.

August 20 at 4:56 pm

Mikey:

KC, just made it home from work. LOL! I have the 4th overall pick in my PPR league. Would u select Elliott/D.Cook or M.Thomas?

August 20 at 4:57 pm

Michael DaRif:

One last question. You are a lot lower than most on Josh Allen. Is it the accuracy issue? And would you then fade the Buffalo pass catchers, especially Diggs?

August 20 at 4:57 pm

KC Joyner:

Kevin, Brady does like throwing to the slot WR, but outside of Randy Moss, Brady never had a WR like Evans. I’m of the mindset that Evans and Godwin will each see 125+ targets but that Evans has the better chance of seeing 150 targets.

August 20 at 5:00 pm

KC Joyner:

Mikey! Was hoping you would be able to make it. Thomas can be a PPR-league phenom, but New Orleans keeps showing that they want to lean on the ground game as much as they possibly can. Combine that with the addition of Sanders and it does just enough to lower Thomas’ grade below Zeke. Would go with Elliott because of that.

August 20 at 5:01 pm

Mikey:

KC, do u ever do anything in relation to IDP leagues?

August 20 at 5:03 pm

KC Joyner:

Michael, the accuracy issue is a big part of it for Allen’s grade. The red rating in matchup points and schedule points both hurt as well. And, as the draft guide notes, Diggs had tremendous vertical/stretch vertical numbers last year but that season is something of an outlier for him. I just don’t think Diggs will do quite as much to fix the Bills stretch vertical issue as is generally thought. Add it up and landed Allen in the yellow-rated tier. Caveat here is that he is a rushing QB and thus will have some superb games to go along with the duds.

August 20 at 5:04 pm

Mikey:

Do u think E.Sanders will put up solid numbers with the Saints this year?

August 20 at 5:05 pm

KC Joyner:

Mikey, I am in a couple of deep-dive IDP leagues and can offer some advice in that environment. I probably won’t be doing articles or content on it on the site, if only because that format still hasn’t reached critical mass in terms of audience, which is a shame because a well-designed IDP can be a highly challenging and entertaining league format.

August 20 at 5:05 pm

Kevin:

Biggest surprise at Quarterback this year will be? One to do great and one to do bad.

August 20 at 5:07 pm

Mikey:

if in the 3rd rd u had a choice between K.Golladay and J.Conner. Who would u take?

August 20 at 5:07 pm

KC Joyner:

Mikey, I did give a lot of consideration to moving Sanders grades even higher than the borderline green-rated/yellow-rated level they are currently at. The big problem is New Orleans does want to run the ball a lot to save the wear and tear on Brees. Having said this, Sanders would be a fantastic WR3 in a 3WR league or a great flex option in leaner leagues.

August 20 at 5:09 pm

KC Joyner:

Kevin, I’m all in on the Kyler Murray bandwagon. He has the third highest upside grade at QB and the odds are strong that he reaches that level. Allen would be one of the potential bust candidates. Am also starting to think Newton might not do as well in New England as initially thought (at least from a fantasy perspective).

August 20 at 5:12 pm

KC Joyner:

Mikey, that is a really tough call because they both have 100 matchup points and thus have huge upside potential. It would really depend on what was taken in rounds 1-2. If it was RB/RB, I’d go Golladay to set the WR1 floor at an acceptable level. If it was RB/WR, I’d go Conner to set the RB2 floor really high.

August 20 at 5:14 pm

Mikey:

in your opinion what is the best point system or an IDP?

August 20 at 5:17 pm

KC Joyner:

Mikey, my personal preference is for a well designed IDP system, as they allow for more avenues to build a quality team. In general environments, however, the preference is for a full-PPR system that offers a bit of an upgrade for tight receptions. That helps make TEs as valuable as WRs and helps to balance out scoring inequities.

August 20 at 5:18 pm

Mikey:

I really want to take Indy rookie RB J.Taylor. But I am nervous about taking him in the 4th or 5th. I love his potential with that O-line. But i feel Mack will still get a lot of touches. Is he worth the risk?

August 20 at 5:19 pm

Kevin:

KC, Good luck to you with your new venture. You certainly have worked hard and deserve a great outcome in your inaugural year,

August 20 at 5:20 pm

KC Joyner:

Mikey, the Colts seem to view Mack as a lightning back in a platoon at best. They want to highlight Taylor as much as possible and his collegiate production indicates they may be able to do so. The big concern is his being a rookie, but that factor will wear off as the season progresses. Add that to the 90 matchup points and it makes Taylor a very good RB2 candidate.

August 20 at 5:23 pm

KC Joyner:

Many thanks for that, Kevin. It couldn’t be done without long-time subscribers such as yourself and the people posting on this chat today. It’s been a heckuva year to start a venture like this, but now that it is looking more and more likely each day that there will be an NFL season, fantasy managers are diving back into this pastime full bore.

August 20 at 5:26 pm

KC Joyner:

And on that note, it’s time to wrap up the chat! I really appreciate everyone taking the time to send over the questions. On a somewhat related note, in an homage to the classic ESPN TFS chats where someone would ask what Mrs. Scientist was making for dinner, tonight’s meal was spaghetti and meatballs. Thanks again and I hope to see you all in the next Paydirt chat!

 




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