August 13, 2018

Updated version of the 2018 Draft Guide is now available!

The 2018 TFS Draft Guide is now updated through all of the personnel changes made by August 12.

Since 2004, The Football Scientist Fantasy Football Draft Guide has used the latest in analytical football methods to successfully predict many of the biggest fantasy football performances of the past fourteen seasons.

Brandon Stokely, Javon Walker, Antonio Gates, Tom Brady, Roddy White, Chris Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Matt Forte, Josh Gordon, and Greg Olsen are only a few of the high-impact players that previous editions of this Guide had rated much higher than most other guides.

One of the keys to success in this industry is to never rest on past laurels and this year’s Guide aims to exceed its predecessors by combining many of the successful aspects of those earlier Guides with new features.

The first of these new features is an overall/upside/downside grading system. This ranking methodology will gauge the relative overall, upside, and downside value of players and use it as a main factor in determining overall draft-day value. This will also be used as the system to update player values via the in-season Start-Sit service.

These overall/upside/downside grades lead to a second new element, which is the most expansive set of cheat sheets in the 15-season history of the Draft Guide. The centerpiece of the cheat sheets are the Top 258 charts that give fantasy grades on the Top 258 players both in standard leagues and PPR leagues. 

An interesting addition here is the relative player grading structure that adds or subtracts overall player value based on how strong that player's position ranks. For example, since there are so many starter-quality quarterbacks this season, that position gets a value downgrade in the Top 258. Add in a revised D/ST rating structure and kicker rankings and it is a cheat sheet bonanza!

The third new feature is an expanded matchup rating system that takes a much larger collection of matchups into account when grading schedule strength. These schedule factors are detailed via week-by-week matchup ratings for wide receivers, quarterbacks, tight ends and team defense. These color-coded ratings give fantasy team owners a roadmap to determine how many weak and strong matchups each player is due to face during the 2018 season. This year’s Guide will also feature the popular metric reviews indicating how a receiver performed when facing different levels of competition.

The running back recommendations will once again be based on the unique TFS running game metrics. For the 2018 Guide, these numbers will be used in a manner to help discern not only who are the most productive backs in favorable situations and also to determine the relative strengths of the rushing defenses each back is due to face.

This approach means that there will be color-coded running back matchup grades in both the Draft Guide and weekly Start-Sit service.

The guide will also be updated throughout the preseason to reflect personnel changes, injuries, etc.

Add all of these metrics to the in-depth player reviews, cheat sheets, and draft strategy recommendations and it equals a plethora of information that simply cannot be found anywhere else!

June 27, 2016


Dr. Z week at the MMQB

Peter King is hosting a Dr. Z week on the MMQB site. He gives an update on Paul and his wife Linda and shares some excerpts from some of Z's great stories. Most importantly, there is a GoFundMe link to help Paul and Linda out in their time of need.

On Friday, July 1, Dr. Z week will include a story about the influence he had on my career, both professionally (I wouldn't have a career without Dr. Z's article on Scientific Football 2005) and personally (he gave me some terrific career advice). It was an honor to contribute to this project and I hope it pays proper tribute to Dr. Z.

Always draft handcuff running backs

This TFS ESPN Insider article details why it is always a good idea to draft a handcuff running back, regardless of how good or bad the lead RB in question is.
July 28, 2015

The 2015 TFS Draft Guide is now complete!

Good news! The 2015 TFS Draft Guide is now complete! This version of the Draft Guide contains matchup reviews, detailed player write-ups, cheat sheets, a slew of metrics and newly added color-coded charting in the player and team write-up sections. The color coding is turning out to be an especially useful addition, as it is now much easier to quickly identify a prospect's metric strengths and weaknesses at a glance.

Pre-order pricing for the Draft Guide and Start-Sit service will stay in effect until Wednesday, July 29, so be sure to order today to save $5.

Football season is just around the corner - can't wait!!


March 19, 2015

2015 TFS Fantasy Football update

Hello again! With all that has happened so far via free agency, it has been quite an interesting offseason.

I am plugging away at the research for the 2015 TFS Draft Guide and thought it might be a good time to pass along a quick update on this year's material.

This year's Guide will feature expanded run metrics that will review situational as well as overall rushing performance.

The Guide will also have color-coded sections in the player write-ups. These color-coded elements should make it easier to quickly judge a player's performance in a metric.

The only downside to the color-coded additions is printed versions of the Draft Guide will no longer be available as an order add-on (color printing costs are simply too high to continue offering this).

Early-bird pre-order pricing for the Draft Guide, Start-Sit service and combination packages (which include the Draft Guide and Start-Sit service at a discounted price) is now available. These items can be found on the Draft Guide order page, which is The site's order process has also been streamlined to make navigating that section even smoother.

Thanks again for all of your support!

KC Joyner

TFS May 29, 2014 ESPN SportsNation chat

This TFS ESPN SportsNation chat saw the chatters having a lot of fun finding interesting ways to ask a wide variety of questions.
May 28, 2014


Chicago Bears could ride Jay Cutler's breakthrough to the playoffs

This TFS ESPN Insider article examines how Marc Trestman helped Jay Cutler cut down on his bad decisions and why the Chicago Bears may have the top passing attack in the NFC North in 2014.