August 20, 2019

An updated version of the 2019 TFS Draft Guide is now available!

An updated version of the 2019 TFS Draft Guide is now available! It is updated through August 19 and contains revised rankings for Andrew Luck, Curtis Samuel, Joe Mixon, Tony Pollard, Jimmy Garoppolo and more!


July 30, 2019

An updated version of the 2019 TFS Draft Guide is now complete!

An updated version of the 2019 TFS Draft Guide is now available! It includes unique metrics, player ratings, auction values, write-ups, schedule analysis and much more!

July 25, 2019

The 2019 TFS Draft Guide is now complete!

Good news! The 2019 TFS Draft Guide is now complete! This year's Draft Guide includes a ton of interesting elements, including a fortune points system, running back pass game metrics, pass rush numbers for D/ST, and better highlighting of long-time TFS metrics.

July 18, 2019

The 2019 TFS Draft Guide is nearly complete!

Hello again! I hope you are having a great summer. Wanted to pass along a quick update about the 2019 TFS Draft Guide. I have about three days worth of writing to go, followed by 1.5-2 days worth of formatting and editing. Add it up and it should be sent out early next week.


August 13, 2018

Updated version of the 2018 Draft Guide is now available!

The 2018 TFS Draft Guide is now updated through all of the personnel changes made by August 12.

Since 2004, The Football Scientist Fantasy Football Draft Guide has used the latest in analytical football methods to successfully predict many of the biggest fantasy football performances of the past fourteen seasons.

Brandon Stokely, Javon Walker, Antonio Gates, Tom Brady, Roddy White, Chris Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Matt Forte, Josh Gordon, and Greg Olsen are only a few of the high-impact players that previous editions of this Guide had rated much higher than most other guides.

One of the keys to success in this industry is to never rest on past laurels and this year’s Guide aims to exceed its predecessors by combining many of the successful aspects of those earlier Guides with new features.

The first of these new features is an overall/upside/downside grading system. This ranking methodology will gauge the relative overall, upside, and downside value of players and use it as a main factor in determining overall draft-day value. This will also be used as the system to update player values via the in-season Start-Sit service.

These overall/upside/downside grades lead to a second new element, which is the most expansive set of cheat sheets in the 15-season history of the Draft Guide. The centerpiece of the cheat sheets are the Top 258 charts that give fantasy grades on the Top 258 players both in standard leagues and PPR leagues. 

An interesting addition here is the relative player grading structure that adds or subtracts overall player value based on how strong that player's position ranks. For example, since there are so many starter-quality quarterbacks this season, that position gets a value downgrade in the Top 258. Add in a revised D/ST rating structure and kicker rankings and it is a cheat sheet bonanza!

The third new feature is an expanded matchup rating system that takes a much larger collection of matchups into account when grading schedule strength. These schedule factors are detailed via week-by-week matchup ratings for wide receivers, quarterbacks, tight ends and team defense. These color-coded ratings give fantasy team owners a roadmap to determine how many weak and strong matchups each player is due to face during the 2018 season. This year’s Guide will also feature the popular metric reviews indicating how a receiver performed when facing different levels of competition.

The running back recommendations will once again be based on the unique TFS running game metrics. For the 2018 Guide, these numbers will be used in a manner to help discern not only who are the most productive backs in favorable situations and also to determine the relative strengths of the rushing defenses each back is due to face.

This approach means that there will be color-coded running back matchup grades in both the Draft Guide and weekly Start-Sit service.

The guide will also be updated throughout the preseason to reflect personnel changes, injuries, etc.

Add all of these metrics to the in-depth player reviews, cheat sheets, and draft strategy recommendations and it equals a plethora of information that simply cannot be found anywhere else!

June 27, 2016


Dr. Z week at the MMQB

Peter King is hosting a Dr. Z week on the MMQB site. He gives an update on Paul and his wife Linda and shares some excerpts from some of Z's great stories. Most importantly, there is a GoFundMe link to help Paul and Linda out in their time of need.

On Friday, July 1, Dr. Z week will include a story about the influence he had on my career, both professionally (I wouldn't have a career without Dr. Z's article on Scientific Football 2005) and personally (he gave me some terrific career advice). It was an honor to contribute to this project and I hope it pays proper tribute to Dr. Z.

Always draft handcuff running backs

This TFS ESPN Insider article details why it is always a good idea to draft a handcuff running back, regardless of how good or bad the lead RB in question is.
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