Notes on a best ball draft KC is in with the Football Diehards staff

I was recently invited to participate in a best ball fantasy draft with Bob Harris, Mike Dempsey and many more of the Football Diehards staff. It is a 20-round draft with an 8-hour window per pick and we are through just over half of the draft. The way the picks are slotting out is interesting so I thought it might make for a fun Paydirt post to go over my selections and the thought process that went into each choice.

Before we get started, for those who might not be familiar with the best ball setup, it is a system in which a fantasy manager selects a team and has those picks locked for the entire year. The team’s optimal scoring lineup is then used for every weekly matchup. This means there are no start-sit picks, no waiver wire or weekly auction claims – your draft picks are your team for the whole fantasy campaign and whichever player scores the most at each position in that week ends up being your starter. This makes choosing high percentage, high upside players the primary goal of every best ball fantasy manager.

Scoring note: This is a full-point PPR league with the usual positional scoring rules (.05 points per passing yard, .1 points per rush/receiving yard, four points per passing touchdown, six points per scrimmage touchdown). It is a 12-team snake league draft, with my team picking fifth in the first round. The weekly rosters consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one flex (RB, WR, TE), and one D/ST. Combine that with 11 bench players and it is a 20-person squad.

With all of the preliminaries out of the way, let’s take a look at this draft’s first 11 rounds (the full league player pick list will be posted below this written section).

First round – Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

It came as no surprise that the first four picks in the draft were running backs, with Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalvin Cook being the top quartet off the board.

At that point the best available running backs were Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb. As much as I am advocating for leaning heavily on running backs in the 2020 fantasy season, none of those RBs looked to offer more consistently strong production than Thomas, especially in a full-point PPR league.

Second round – Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions

Choosing Thomas had the potential side effect of forcing this team to go with a zero-RB approach in this draft if a slew of running backs were taken prior to this club’s round two selection and that is exactly what happened. Nine of the next fourteen picks following Thomas were running backs, four were wide receivers and one was a tight end.

The result of this is when the 20^th draft spot was on the clock the best available running backs on the board were Josh Jacobs, James Conner, Leonard Fournette, or Todd Gurley. Jacobs or Gurley looked to be best options among that group, but Gurley’s injury status and Jacobs not being much of a pass catcher (he had only 20 receptions in 2019 and only 48 receptions in his entire collegiate career) made it difficult to trust them for a high volume of blue-rated performances in 2020.

I noted in a recent Paydirt post that Golladay has a very good chance of landing near the top of the wide receiver fantasy rankings this year. Since a wide receiver run was likely to take place over the next eight picks, it seemed this might be the only chance to garner Golladay’s upside, so he was the choice.

Third round – Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The expected wide receiver run did happen, as Chris Godwin, D.J. Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Odell Beckham, Jr. accounted for four of the next eight picks off the board. With Travis Kelce, Jacobs, and Conner also taken in that time frame, it left Fournette, Gurley, and Evans as the top remaining options.

Fournette can be a fine selection in some league formats, but it usually isn’t a good idea in the best ball arena to rely on players on low octane offenses like Jacksonville. Add that to Gurley’s aforementioned injury concerns and the Buccaneers having a very favorable pass defense schedule (Evans tallied a 77 matchup points total in my most recent fantasy rankings) and it made taking Evans a fairly easy choice.

Fourth round – Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Four more wide receivers and three more running backs were taken by the time the draft snaked back, so tight ends were now trending as a prime option. At this juncture only George Kittle and Kelce had been selected, so that meant four blue-rated tight ends were available: Andrews, Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski, and Darren Waller. Gronkowski and Waller were likely to be available much later in the draft (more on this below), so it came down to Ertz or Andrews. Since Andrews sported a 100 matchup points total, he had the higher upside grade and thus was the selection.

Fifth round – Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

I had to be away from the computer for a time during the fifth round pick, so this was an autopick by the computer. Allen is actually a solid option as a fourth WR in a three WR/one flex full-point PPR league, so it was a good claim by the computer.

Sixth round – Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The zero-RB approach afforded the chance to load up at wide receiver and tight end in the first five rounds but at this point it was time to set a performance floor for the running back position. Tampa Bay has a perfect 100 score in rush defense matchup points and, as noted above, has a very favorable pass defense schedule as well. That combination should put the Buccaneers into a lot of high scoring contests and thus provide Jones with a solid amount of upside starts.

Seventh round – Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

The initial thought for the round seven pick was to take a second straight running back but with four running backs chosen in the eight spots following the Jones selection the value at running back didn’t justify that direction.

Four quarterbacks had been picked by the midpoint of the seventh round but Wilson, who is one of only three blue-rated quarterbacks in my latest rankings, was surprisingly still on the board. There were four other quarterbacks on the board that had blue-rated upside grades but getting someone of Wilson’s fantasy production ceiling at this point in the draft was advantageous enough to warrant selecting him here.

Eighth round – Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I noted in a recent Paydirt post that Vaughn’s superb 2018 breakaway metrics made the former Vanderbilt star a tremendous value later in drafts. His presence on this team also offsets the potential downside of a split carry or injury situation with Jones.

Ninth round – Tevin Coleman, RB, San Francisco 49ers

The last four picks before this selection were running backs, so it was clear this was a now or never situation to get a RB4 caliber back. Coleman has posted superb GBYPA totals in the past and plays on a run-heavy offense that rewards “hot hand” players and thus afforded a solid amount of upside for a ninth round pick.

Tenth round – Eric Ebron, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Eleventh round – Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The tight end position has six blue-rated and six green-rated players in my most recent rankings update. Those totals provide this position with a quality depth level it has lacked in recent seasons, yet some ADP trends suggest this is still an undervalued position in many draft rooms.

That seemed to be the case here for a time, as there were only three tight ends taken in the first five rounds and only five taken in rounds 6-8. That trend changed dramatically in round nine and the first half of round ten, as six tight ends were selected between picks 102-115.

Despite the run there was still plenty of value to be found here, as Ebron has green-rated upside and Gronkowski rates as a blue-rated player (I have a lot of faith in his ability to return to form and be utilized as Brady’s primary red zone threat).

This duo gives this squad three tight ends but each of them has tremendous upside potential that should provide this team with upper-tier tight end point production for a relatively low draft day investment.

Below is a full pick chart for this draft. At the time of this post, the draft was ten picks into the 11th round.

Subscribe for full content